Trump’s Return: A New Geopolitical Landscape for Russia?
With Trump’s return to the White House, Russia braces for potential shifts in US policy, weighing new opportunities and challenges on the global stage, experts explain
By Veronica Neifakh / The Media Line
With Donald Trump securing another term in the White House, questions are arising about how his administration’s approach will shape the future of US-Russia relations. Officials and analysts are watching closely and evaluating what a renewed Trump presidency could mean for Russia’s foreign policy objectives and geopolitical standing.
Trump’s previous tenure saw an unconventional approach to international affairs, leaving many to wonder if his return to the presidency might prompt new opportunities—or challenges—for Moscow on the global stage.
As both countries reassess their diplomatic and strategic priorities, the implications of Trump’s leadership for Russia remain uncertain.
Maxim Starchak, a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen’s University in Canada, highlighted Russia’s cautious stance following Trump’s victory. An expert on Russian nuclear policy, strategic weapons, arms control, and defense and nuclear industry, he explained that the Kremlin will “use a wait-and-see tactic,” observing the Trump Administration’s moves before deciding on its response.
He told The Media Line that the general mood in Moscow is currently “wary,” with no one expecting “anything concrete,” whether positive or negative.
“Russia does not anticipate Trump’s victory to alter [Russian President Vladmir] Putin’s strategic goals; instead, it’s waiting to see if the new US policies might contribute to Russia’s goals in Europe and the Middle East or not,” Starchak shared. “If the administration’s direction aligns with Russian interests, Russia will negotiate, but otherwise, it will continue the confrontation for as long as necessary.”
Starchak emphasized that Moscow does not hope for any major shift in relations with the US and NATO, regardless of developments in its ongoing war with Ukraine. “The course of confrontation is strategic,” he asserted, “with Russia prepared to engage in security agreements only if the US and NATO acknowledge its interests in the post-Soviet space as legitimate and agree to stop the alliance’s expansion in the region.”
Without these “legal requirements, Putin will not be interested in entering into any negotiations with the United States and NATO,” he added.
Regarding sanctions, Starchak observed that Russia is not deterred by potential economic penalties. “They are not afraid of new sanctions and will take countermeasures if they [sanctions] appear,” he stated.
While energy markets are “critically important for Russia,” Starchak explained that Moscow isn’t currently formulating a comprehensive strategy for them; if further sanctions affect oil and gas and lead to financial strain, the Kremlin would likely “reduce budget expenditures rather than change Moscow’s policy.”
The absence of new arms control agreements also doesn’t concern Russia as long as the US refrains from producing additional nuclear warheads or testing nuclear weapons, Starchak noted. “The conclusion of any arms control agreements is not a priority for Moscow,” he stated, reiterating that the Kremlin’s top priority is ensuring US and NATO acceptance of “Russia’s zone of influence in the post-Soviet space, where Russia will have the last word.”
According to political scientist Leonid Goldenberg, drawing conclusions about Russia’s reaction to Trump’s US election victory remains challenging, as “practically all the information field is filled with propagandist takes on the new administration.”
The Russian media field is saturated with both pro- and anti-Trump slogans, signaling, as he put it, that “Russian propaganda itself is still unsure and lacks clear talking points on whether Trump’s election is good or bad.”
Goldenberg pointed to a critical statement made by Putin immediately following Trump’s win, in which the Russian president warned that “the next ten years will be worse.” This, according to Goldenberg, was aimed primarily at the Russian people, signaling that Putin does not expect any relaxation of US sanctions.
“Sanctions are not meant to collapse the economy but to slow it down. One way or another, things will break down—planes, everything else,” Goldenberg added.
He compared Russia’s situation to Iran, which is also under various US sanctions, noting that under sanctions, technology becomes outdated, and “you technologically stop reaching certain advancements.” However, Goldenberg clarified that despite these constraints, “Russia has not become an isolated state over the past two years.”
Goldenberg added, “Russia continues to be an important international player, partly due to UN support.” He referenced UN Secretary-General Anotonio Guterres’ recent handshake with Putin at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, despite an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Putin.
“There would be nothing surprising if Trump begins a dialogue with him,” Goldenberg said, highlighting that Russia remains a significant player on the world stage and has even strengthened in some areas.
Goldenberg also speculated that US support for Ukraine could diminish under Trump if it conflicts with US interests. “They might find it more advantageous to abandon Ukraine,” he said, noting that signs of this shift appeared even under President Biden, as Ukraine has struggled to withstand internal and external pressures.
Trump could impose “strict conditions on Ukraine and Russia, with a ‘do this or nothing’ approach,” particularly on Ukraine, asserted Goldenberg, who added that Ukraine is more dependent on NATO, the US, and EU nations whose support has waned amid a European crisis.
Finally, Goldenberg advised caution in interpreting current narratives, as Trump has yet to be inaugurated, and the atmosphere remains speculative, filled with opinions and propaganda.
“Now is the worst time to draw conclusions,” he warned, adding, “I would approach anyone who confidently claims to know how things will unfold with extreme skepticism.”
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