The Media Line: Report: Iran Prepares for Conflict with Israel as Potential Retaliation Looms

Iran is preparing for potential escalation with Israel while simultaneously attempting to avoid full-scale conflict, according to a report published Thursday. Tehran’s next steps hinge on Israel’s anticipated response to an October 1 ballistic missile attack launched by Iran, which was reportedly greenlit by Iran’s top leadership in recent days.

Citing four Iranian officials, The New York Times reported that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instructed Iran’s armed forces to develop a range of plans, taking into account possible Israeli reprisals. Officials, including members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), noted that if Israel were to strike sensitive sites in Iran, such as oil infrastructure or nuclear facilities, or target high-ranking Iranian officials, Iran would not hesitate to escalate further. In such a scenario, Iran could launch up to 1,000 ballistic missiles—a substantial increase from the 200 missiles fired on October 1—or disrupt global energy supplies and trade routes.

On the other hand, sources indicated that if Israel limits its strikes to military bases or weapons storage facilities, Tehran might decide not to retaliate, potentially ending the latest round of conflict.

This precarious balance is occurring amid signs that Israel may be weighing strikes on Iranian oil or nuclear facilities. However, the US has reportedly opposed such plans, citing concerns over the risk of broader escalation that could lead to Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Israel or Western-aligned nations in the region.

While Iranian leaders maintain a public stance against engaging in a regional war, Tehran is also wary of appearing weak, according to the report. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi conducted a regional diplomatic tour last week to emphasize Iran’s desire to avoid escalation. However, Iran is also signaling strength through threats aimed at Israel and its allies, despite heavy setbacks dealt to its proxy forces, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.