Moscow’s Move To Delist Taliban Faces Skepticism Over IS-KP Threats
Analysts warn that removing the Taliban from the terror list might not curb threats from extremist groups like IS-KP
By Arshad Mehmood / The Media Line
[Islamabad] Russia has officially decided to remove the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, although some legal procedures remain incomplete, according to a report from Russia’s state news agency, TASS, on Friday.
Zamir Kabulov, Russia’s envoy to Afghanistan, discussed the decision during the latest session of the Moscow Format of Consultations on Afghanistan.
“Hopefully, the final decision will be announced soon,” Kabulov said, noting that Russian authorities still need to complete some legal steps.
Earlier on Friday, Alexander Bortnikov, director of Russia’s Federal Security Service, said the Taliban is working with Russia to combat the South-Central Asian branch of the Islamic State group, known as IS-KP.
“Both countries’ cooperation has reached a critical stage in tackling the group’s operations,” Bortnikov said. He accused the West of supporting IS-KP and using the group to carry out false-flag operations in Russia.
The statements were made the same day Moscow hosted a regional conference on Afghanistan, led by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
“We firmly believe in the importance of maintaining a pragmatic dialogue with the current Afghan government,” Lavrov said in his opening remarks. Representatives from Iran, Pakistan, China, Uzbekistan, India, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan attended the conference.
Lavrov praised the Taliban for its efforts to combat drug trafficking in Afghanistan and confront IS-KP.
“Once again, we urge Western countries to recognize their responsibility for the post-conflict reconstruction of Afghanistan, lift sanctions, and return the assets that have been appropriated from Kabul,” Lavrov said.
The Taliban delegation, led by Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, who is under US sanctions, participated in the discussions as regional pressure grows for Afghanistan to take stronger action against terrorism and promote inclusive governance.
After the summit, Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a press release calling for enhanced counterterrorism cooperation and urging Afghanistan to implement comprehensive measures addressing the root causes of terrorism and prevent its territory from being used for terrorist activities.
Participants at the conference urged Afghanistan’s government to adopt a moderate and inclusive approach and to protect the basic rights of all Afghans, especially women, girls, and ethnic minorities. The representatives also reaffirmed their support for Afghanistan’s independence and peace.
Russia designated the Taliban a terrorist organization in 2003. Since then, practical cooperation between the two has grown, driven by mutual concerns over IS-KP’s activities.
In July 2023, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia considers the Taliban an ally in the fight against terrorism, reflecting shifting regional dynamics as both face the growing threat of IS-KP.
IS-KP’s extremist ideology and violent operations pose a direct threat to Russian interests in the region, particularly in countries bordering Afghanistan like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Moscow, which maintains security pacts with these states, is concerned about the spillover of terrorist activities.
The US has not recognized the Taliban government. US Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West stepped down last week, stating, “America remains committed to Afghanistan and its people.”
US-led sanctions have crippled Afghanistan’s economy, causing a dire humanitarian crisis.
In August 2024, UN Undersecretary-General for Counterterrorism Vladimir Voronkov briefed the UN Security Council on IS-KP’s capacity for international attacks. In March 2024, IS-KP fighters launched an assault on Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing 145 people—Russia’s deadliest terrorist attack in two decades.
Voronkov noted that IS-KP has intensified recruitment and improved its financial and logistical operations, partly through support from Afghan and Central Asian diaspora communities.
A year before the Crocus City Hall attack, in March 2023, Gen. Michael Kurilla, head of US Central Command, warned that IS-KP could potentially target Western interests within six months, including hundreds of thousands of US citizens abroad.
The Afghan Taliban dismissed concerns about IS-KP’s threat.
Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban’s chief spokesperson, told The Media Line: “The Islamic Emirate has taken decisive and effective measures against the group, leading to the elimination of their activities within Afghanistan.”
“The commitment of the Islamic Emirate to combat terrorism and maintain regional security is evident in its operations against this extremist group,” he said.
Mujahid asserted that the Taliban’s removal from the global terror list is a matter of principle and right, arguing that it would help Afghanistan build trust with neighboring countries.
Despite Mujahid’s claims, IS-KP remains active in Afghanistan. Last month, IS-KP claimed responsibility for an attack in Daykundi that killed at least 14 Shiite Muslims.
IS-KP has historically targeted Shiites but also poses a significant challenge to the Taliban, despite both groups being Sunni.
The Taliban government has consistently downplayed IS-KP’s threat to Afghanistan.
Dr. Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based political analyst, told The Media Line that removing the Taliban from the terror list could improve Afghanistan’s situation over time.
“The move would allow Russia to expand military and intelligence cooperation with the Taliban, possibly supplying small arms and securing investment deals in energy and mining,” he said.
Korybko said Russia’s interests in Afghanistan include eliminating terrorism, preventing foreign military bases, promoting energy and mining investments, opening markets for Russian exports, and creating trade routes to South Asia. He noted that Pakistan has accused the Taliban of supporting Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, but Afghanistan denies the claim.
“The recent quadrilateral meeting between China, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia stressed that the Taliban must eliminate all terrorist groups without discrimination,” Korybko said, adding that trade routes through Afghanistan are at risk unless these threats are addressed.
Russia’s removal of the Taliban from the terror list could be “a first step toward broader security and investment cooperation,” Korybko added.
Deedar Karim, a defense expert based in Islamabad, told The Media Line that Russia is focused on promoting security in Central Asia. “With its ongoing engagement in Ukraine, Russia cannot afford to open another front against Islamist radicals,” Karim said.
Russia has long faced challenges from Islamist extremism, especially in Chechnya and Dagestan, Karim noted.
Karim said Russia and China are keen to improve their image by stabilizing Afghanistan. “By doing so, the two countries can position themselves as peacebuilders in a region that has suffered from Western interventions,” he said.
He said that groups like IS-KP have grown stronger due to global instability and deepening distrust among major powers.
“The rising tensions among great powers in the Asia-Pacific, combined with conflicts like the Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict, allow terrorist organizations to extend their influence,” he said.
Irina Tsukerman, a national security expert based in New York, told The Media Line that Russia is trying to solidify its presence in Afghanistan, similar to its approach in West and Central Africa.
“Russia has a history of exploiting destabilization and chaos to weaken its economic and political rivals,” she said.
She said this strategy has facilitated the rise of “global jihadist groups that pose threats to the US and Europe.”
“As a major source of global instability, Russia’s actions in Afghanistan should not be viewed more favorably than its other methods of creating chaos and conducting proxy warfare against its rivals, regardless of the impact on local communities,” she said.
Tsukerman added that the departure of US Special Representative Thomas West does not mean Afghanistan is less important to US interests.
“On the contrary, the increasing presence of al-Qaida and IS-KP should make Afghanistan a key focus for future counterterrorism efforts,” she said. “Rather, his exit highlights the shortcomings of the Biden Administration’s policies, despite efforts to downplay UN reports on the growth of terrorist camps.”
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