Despite IDF’s Advances in Gaza, Hostage Release Hinges on Agreement with Hamas
Experts assert that the IDF significantly weakened Hamas and accomplished most of what it could in Gaza, but only diplomacy can end the conflict, free the hostages, and address humanitarian concerns in the region
By Nathan Klabin/The Media Line
In the shadow of the current conflict in Gaza, with growing international pressure on Israel and Hamas, negotiations between the fighting parties reached a critical juncture. With mediation efforts led by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States struggling to break the deadlock, military experts assess that continuing Israel’s high-intensity fighting against Hamas won’t bring significant gains, even if mopping-up operations might still need to take place.
As the situation in Gaza deteriorates, the prospects for a cease-fire and a negotiated agreement hang in the balance. Colonel (Res) Dr. Eran Lerman, deputy director for foreign policy and international affairs at the National Security Council in Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office and Vice President of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, explained to TML that, at this stage, the IDF’s high command sees that, freeing the hostages in Gaza depends on an agreement with Hamas, and that simply opting for military alternatives could hurt Israel’s interests.
“A couple of successful liberation raids several months apart and the retrieval of several bodies do not yet constitute a base for hopes that this can be repeated in the near future,” Dr. Lerman explained. “The key is to complete the destruction of tunnels from Egypt and to establish control preventing armed elements from going north. All else can apparently be done by raids–Gaza is now wide open for the IDF to go in and out,” yet the hostages remain in captivity.
Gershon Baskin, a veteran Israeli negotiator known for his role in the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, provided insights into the current state of negotiations to TML. According to him, the negotiations between Israel and Hamas are indirect. “They never talk to each other. They never face each other,” he said. Instead, mediators from the US, Qatar, and Egypt are working behind the scenes to facilitate communication and explore potential avenues for compromise.
Initially, the mediators spoke with the Israeli team to understand if Prime Minister Netanyahu had expanded their mandate. Basking explained that mediators need to see if it went “beyond what they had last time Israel delivered a message, which was about two weeks ago in Rome,” to determine if there’s any room for negotiation with Hamas. Meanwhile, the mediators are also trying to understand if Hamas’ negotiators have any changes on their side if they can negotiate anything themselves, “or if everything needs to be referred back to Gaza,” Basking explained.
“Hamas is in Doha, but they’re not formally participating in the talks. They’re essentially a phone call or a short visit away. Tactically, Hamas has stated that they aren’t participating, and there’s a deal on the table. They’re waiting for Israel’s response,” so, if there’s a chance of a negotiated agreement, the Egyptians and the Qataris will contact Hamas, Basking explained.
Experts don’t foresee Netanyahu changing the terms he agreed with Biden, “but does seek greater clarity on how the Philadelphi Corridor will be monitored and who will sort out the passage of people from the Southern Gaza Strip back to Gaza City. There have been preliminary talks about this in Egypt.” Dr. Lerman added. According to him, Netanyahu tried to change the terms “but settled for attempts to interpret existing aspects.”
As Qatar and Egypt continue to perform an essential role in the negotiations, Dr. Lerman highlighted that “Qatar’s leverage on Sinwar was always in doubt, all the more so now as he is the one holding the hostages, while Egypt is more relevant, sitting astride Sinwar’s lifeline.”
Considering the deadlock in the negotiations and the frustration of the mediators trying to find a possible deal, Baskin anticipates that “if the mediators determine that the Israeli negotiators don’t have much room to negotiate and that Netanyahu tied their hand, I think we can expect to see some bridging proposals put on the table by the mediators themselves, who will take into account what Israel needs and demands as well as what Hamas needs and demands.”
After more than 314 days since October 7, the Hostages Families Forum, alongside more than 100 Rabbis from all denominations in America, published this Thursday a letter urging Prime Minister Netanyahu “to finalize the deal on the table—outlined by President Biden and endorsed by Qatar, Egypt, and the UN Security Council—and to bring much-needed relief to those suffering.” Considering the harsh conditions that the IDF encountered in the hiding tunnels in Gaza, many critics and hostages’ family members say that “time is running out.”
With the lives of more than 115 hostages at stake, Baskin said he believes the mediators and negotiators “have more room to maneuver, but we don’t know what that means.” The expert sees the presence of the negotiators from Mossad, Shabak, and the IDF as “a good sign” because they wouldn’t get involved if they believed they didn’t have room to maneuver, “but we don’t know what the limitations are.”
Considering the real possibility of another round of failed negotiations in Qatar between Hamas and Israel and a potential escalation between the Jewish State and Iran, Baskin added that a potential failure in negotiations would mean the hostages would stay in terrible captivity conditions for longer and with lives at risk. On top of this, the situation involving Iran and Hezbollah would escalate would likely escalate. “If there is no agreement, Iran is free to attack Israel, whatever way they’ve been planning to do it. We don’t know what the extent of an Iranian attack would be. Would it be on civilian targets or military targets? Would they seek to kill a lot of people or create a lot of damage? We don’t know,” he said.
Lerman evaluates that “the Iranians have reasons to limit their ‘revenge’ raid, but they will feel obliged to do something if the talks fail. But unless we see a window of opportunity to destroy their Nuclear program, Israel too will respond in a measured way.”
“There is no doubt that within the Iranian regime, and amongst the Iranian people, there is a strong objection to Iran launching a much wider war. The same thing is true for Hezbollah in the north. They will respond. The question is the extent of that response. Most people in Lebanon also don’t want a war,” Baskin concluded.
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