The Media Line: America Votes: In Israel, GOP and Dems Face Off

America Votes: In Israel, GOP and Dems Face Off

Heads of organizations representing Republican and Democratic voters abroad discuss how American dual citizens and Jewish voters in Israel may influence the US election

By Felice Friedson/The Media Line

US elections have not been this charged, or Americans this polarized, in a very long time, with Democrats and Republicans fiercely rallying behind their candidates. Voter priorities traditionally center around issues like the economy, immigration, and reproductive rights. This election cycle, for many voters, especially Jewish voters, foreign policy regarding Israel and the Middle East will play an unusually significant role in determining their preference for the next US president.

In Israel, interest in the US presidential election is significant, reflecting the strong ties between the two countries. According to a recent poll conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, 72% of Jewish Israelis believe that former President Donald Trump would better serve Israel’s interests compared to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, with only 11% favoring a Democratic victory. Among Arab citizens of Israel, almost half saw no difference between the candidates, while the rest were slightly more favorable toward Trump.

According to the Federal Voting Assistance Program, approximately 147,000 eligible American voters live in Israel, making it the fourth-largest expatriate community behind Canada, the UK, and France.

As Americans prepared to head to the polls, US Democratic and Republican leaders in Israel spoke with The Media Line, offering insights on voter expectations, factors influencing Jewish voting patterns, and the heightened relevance of foreign policy in this election.

Marc Zell, co-chairman, Republicans Overseas Israel

Marc Zell, chairman of Republicans Overseas Israel and a voter in Maryland, expressed optimism about the Republican Party’s performance in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Republicans, he said, were outperforming expectations in early polls, particularly in key swing states.

“In the last election, Republicans were advised against early voting and were wary of last-minute changes, especially due to the pandemic,” Zell told The Media Line. “Many felt mail-in ballots invited potential fraud and irregularities.” However, he noted a strategic shift within the party. “Republicans have reversed their stance on early voting. You saw Elon Musk encouraging early voting, along with many others,” he said.

According to Zell, current results show Republicans leading in early voting in many swing states, with margins narrowing significantly in Pennsylvania. “In some states like Nevada, we are outpacing the Democrats, and that’s unheard of,” he claimed.

He also cited a surge in new voter registrations across all swing states as a key factor contributing to the Republicans’ optimistic outlook.

The aftermath of the 2020 election prompted the Republican Party to regroup and reorganize, particularly in areas like Montgomery and Bucks counties in Pennsylvania. Zell mentioned that activists in these regions secured extended voting hours. “In Bucks County, large numbers of people lined up to vote but were told polling places had closed. We went to court to ensure that every eligible voter had the opportunity to cast their ballot,” he said.

Zell described an effort to reach out to citizens who don’t usually vote as a “strategic shift.”

While the GOP remains concerned about alleged voter fraud among its opponents, “If we secure enough votes, we won’t need to worry about irregularities. It’s the best insurance policy,” he said.

Discussing the influence of former President Donald Trump, Zell noted that Trump has expanded the map of competitive states. “Trump put states in play that were not traditionally swing states,” he said, mentioning Virginia, New Hampshire, and New Mexico specifically. “It’s indicative of a trend.”

“In Virginia, it’s very close—down to 2 points or less, within the margin of error,” he added. While Trump himself expressed optimism about winning in traditionally Democratic states—stating in Pittsburgh last Saturday night that “a little birdie told me we’re winning in New Jersey”—Zell was more cautious. “I don’t want to delude myself that the state of New Jersey is close or that we’ll flip the state,” he admitted.

Acknowledging that polling among Jewish voters shows at least a 60% preference for Kamala Harris, Zell referred to the Trump presidency as remarkably pro-Israel, highlighting several key actions taken during his administration. “Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem,” he said. “He also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, withdrew the United States from the Iran nuclear deal that Israel strongly opposed, facilitated the Abraham Accords, and shifted US policy on the settlements, no longer regarding them as inherently illegal under international law.”

Zell anticipates an increase in Republican seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. He expressed concern over the Democrats’ efforts to flip the House, which currently has an eight-seat Republican majority. However, he predicts the Republicans will increase their lead by three to five seats. In the Senate, where Democrats and independents currently hold a slim 51-seat majority, Zell believes the Republicans will secure a majority of around 53 to 55 seats.

Although Republicans Overseas Israel is not formally integrated with the Republican Party, it works closely with party leaders. Zell noted that both Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, have created campaign videos encouraging Israeli American voters to participate in the election. He also mentioned that Trump made a campaign promise to ease taxation laws for Americans living abroad, pointing out that Americans in Israel are currently subject to dual taxation on income above a certain threshold.

Ethan Kushner, chair, American Democrats in Israel

Ethan Kushner, chair of American Democrats in Israel and a voter in Illinois, shared his insights on the evolving dynamics within the Democratic Party and its impact on Jewish voters in the 2024 presidential election. Kushner’s organization recently separated from Democrats Abroad due to what he described as rising anti-Israel rhetoric within the parent organization. This decision was influenced by the murder of board member Hannah Katsman’s son, Hayim—a peace activist and academic—who was killed during the October 7, 2023, massacre at Kibbutz Holit.

Kushner said that while the leadership of Democrats Abroad offered condolences, the overall response was “insufficient.” Concurrently, extreme anti-Israel sentiments became more prevalent within the umbrella organization. Efforts by the Israeli branch to address and curtail this rhetoric were unsuccessful. “After October 7, we felt it was better to align ourselves with the Jewish Democratic Council of America,” Kushner told The Media Line. Though now affiliated, his group remains independent from the council.

Regarding the 2024 presidential election, Kushner remarked, “It will boil down to our ability to win three swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. I’d be foolish to say victory is in the bag.”

He voiced concerns about what he perceives as a shift against Jewish interests on the political left, particularly among liberal groups traditionally supported by American Jews. “Many liberal Jews will now question the extent of their support for groups like LGBTQ, climate, and women’s rights organizations,” he said. “This will require some rethinking. These are obviously Jewish values, but a lot of liberal Jews will be looking at how groups on the progressive left affect them.”

Kushner noted that while antisemitism from neo-Nazi and fascist groups in the US is not surprising, “suddenly, the ultra-left started attacking us.”

Historically, 70–75% of Jewish voters have backed Democrats. Kushner predicted a “slight dip” in Jewish support for the party this year but emphasized that most Jewish Americans would still vote Democratic. Those who do not may choose not to support either major candidate rather than vote for former President Donald Trump.

In Israel, however, the Jewish American vote might differ due to perceptions of Trump as pro-Israel. “In Israel, some believe that Trump is good for Israel and that the Democratic Party is not,” Kushner explained.

Kushner expressed optimism about the Democratic Party’s prospects in Congress. He would be surprised to see Democrats lose control of the Senate and believes they have a “pretty fair chance” to regain control of the House of Representatives. He also expressed satisfaction that several members of “The Squad”—an informal group of progressive Democrats known for their critical stance on Israel—were voted out of office. “I’m extremely happy about that,” he commented.

Highlighting the Democratic Party’s long-standing support for Israel, Kushner pointed out that Democratic presidents have facilitated successful peace negotiations with both Egypt and Jordan. “Israel should be a bipartisan issue, and there is no doubt that President Biden has been a staunch supporter of Israel,” he stated.

When asked about recent discussions of a potential arms embargo if Israel does not improve the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, Kushner noted that such measures are not exclusively tied to the Democratic Party. “It has happened under Republican presidents, including President Ronald Reagan, as well,” he said.

Acknowledging criticisms of former President Barack Obama, Kushner admitted, “President Obama made mistakes but was grossly maligned in Israel. He was responsible for the largest aid package to Israel, which included the Iron Dome system that allows me to sleep at night, living in Haifa.”

What keeps Kushner awake, however, is the prospect of a Trump victory. He expressed deep concern over what he perceives as threats to democratic values. “The future of democracy in the US is at stake,” he said. “We are fighting for our democratic ideals—the ideals of America we all grew up on. And the danger is not to the United States alone. I think what Donald Trump stands for is a danger for the world.”

Kory Bardash, co-chairman, Republicans Overseas Israel

Bardash, co-chairman of Republicans Overseas Israel and a voter in New Jersey, predicts a tight race for control of the Senate and House. Expressing hope for a Republican “clean sweep,” Bardash emphasizes the importance of strong American leadership on the global stage. “When America is strong, Israel and the world are safer,” he told The Media Line.

Bardash suggests that while the Jewish community traditionally leans Democratic, voters who prioritize Israel’s security may reconsider their affiliations. “When you drill down to those voters where Israel factors in as a priority, or those who are traditional about Israel, the outcome changes,” he explained.

He also highlighted concerns over rising global antisemitism and recent conflicts affecting Israel. “Israel faced the largest attack on Jews since the Holocaust,” Bardash noted, referencing the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. “There is global antisemitism we have never seen before.”

Reflecting on historical voting patterns, Bardash pointed out that President Reagan received 40% of the Jewish vote in the 1980s. He argues that under Republican leadership, particularly during President Trump’s tenure, both America and Israel experienced greater security. “When America is weak and projects weakness, bad actors play,” he warned.

Bardash praised actions taken during the Trump Administration, such as the elimination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani and the withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. He criticized the Biden Administration’s approach to Iran, expressing concern that it has “enriched and emboldened Iran,” which he believes has in turn supported groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Discussing voter outreach efforts, Bardash mentioned that of the approximately 100,000 American Jews who may vote from Israel, half are from Democratic states and half from swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia. “We made concerted efforts to reach people from these swing states,” he said.

While acknowledging that Trump may not be his personal first choice, Bardash conceded his strength as a candidate. “To quote Nikki Haley, he is a stronger candidate than her,” he said.

Bardash contrasted President Biden, whom he described as a “classic Democrat,” with Vice President Kamala Harris, suggesting she represents a more progressive faction of the party. He expressed concerns about her positions on Middle Eastern policy, asserting that Vice President Harris wavered on whether Israel is committing genocide in the Gaza Strip.

Sheldon Schorer, former chairman, Democrats Abroad Israel

Sheldon Schorer, former chairman of Democrats Abroad Israel and a voter in New York, shared his insights on the current political climate and its impact on Jewish voters.

Reflecting on the unpredictability of polling, Schorer expressed surprise at the closeness of the race. “In 2016, reliable polls came out for Hillary Clinton. It turned out it was all wrong. I have no idea who will win. I’m surprised it’s this close,” he told The Media Line.

Emphasizing the importance of integrity in leadership, he added, “Character used to mean something. Here you have Trump, who has bad character. He’s a terrible person. Trump wakes up every morning thinking about what he can do for himself.”

Schorer criticized former President Trump’s approach to leadership and policy, particularly in foreign affairs. Labeling the Republican candidate an isolationist, he voiced concerns about the potential implications for Israel.

“I’m fearful Trump is an isolationist; other countries don’t respect him. He may decide to impose a two-state solution. If he does this, it will put more pressure on Israel, forcing the outcome without bringing peace, nor changing the Palestinian charter,” Schorer cautioned.

Schorer also challenged Trump’s portrayal of the US economy. “He uses scare tactics—says the economy in America is terrible. But the economy is terrific,” he asserted. While acknowledging that Trump moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem—a significant gesture for many pro-Israel voters—Schorer questioned what other substantive actions had been taken. “Trump moved the embassy to Jerusalem, but what else?” he asked.

He also expressed concern over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, attributing some responsibility to Trump’s policies. “I blame Trump to a large degree” for Iran forging ahead in its nuclear program after Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal.

Highlighting the importance of voter turnout, Schorer noted, “One of the biggest problems any party has is to get people out to vote.” He emphasized that the interests of the US and Israel are rooted in the nations themselves, not solely dependent on individual leaders. “The interest of the US and Israel doesn’t depend on Trump or Harris,” he remarked.

PHOTO – Marc Zell, co-chairman, Republicans Overseas Israel