30 Years of the Israeli-Jordanian Peace Treaty: A Cold Peace or a Repeatable Success?
Scholars and diplomats assess the treaty’s impact and future relations at a Tel Aviv conference
By Nathan Klabin/ The Media Line
Marking three decades since the signing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty on October 26, 1994, scholars, diplomats, and policymakers gathered at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). The event featured speakers who contributed to the treaty’s negotiation and implementation, examining its achievements and the impact of recent conflicts on Israeli-Jordanian relations, particularly in securing Israel’s longest border.
On July 25, 1994, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Jordan’s King Hussein, with US President Bill Clinton mediating, signed the Washington Declaration on the White House lawn. This landmark agreement ended a 46-year state of war between Israel and Jordan and set the stage for a formal peace treaty.
Before signing the peace treaty, Rabin and King Hussein met on October 26, 1994 at the Arava Border Terminal on their countries’ border, where they shared a symbolic handshake signifying a revolutionary step toward cooperation and peace. Later that day, Rabin and Jordanian Prime Minister Abdelsalam Majali officially signed the Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty, solidifying their commitment to mutual recognition, security, and the establishment of normal diplomatic relations between the two nations.
In 2024, Israeli-Jordanian relations face fresh challenges, with rising tensions in Gaza and the Muslim Brotherhood gaining influence in Jordan’s parliament. Experts observed that while the peace treaty has ensured stability, it has yet to fully resonate with the Jordanian public, persisting largely due to mutual strategic interests.
Notably, no Jordanians participated as speakers at the event.
Dr. Ofir Winter, a senior researcher at the INSS, spoke at the event about the recent rise in influence of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood and its impact on regional dynamics. He noted that while Jordan’s king remains the primary authority, the Brotherhood’s unprecedented gains, winning 31 of the 138 seats in parliament in the 2024 elections after holding just 10 of parliament’s 130 seats in 2020, present a strategic challenge for both the Jordanian government and Israel-Jordan relations. “While the Brotherhood historically was integrated into and co-opted by Jordan’s political and social system, its recent electoral success in the parliamentary elections, combined with the impact of the Gaza war, has given the movement newfound confidence to challenge the regime and its foreign policy,” Winter explained.
Dr. Rafa Halabi from Daliyat al-Karmel, a Druze town in Haifa District, told The Media Line, “This peace is crucial; Israel and Jordan form a gateway to the region. While this peace holds strategic value, some Arab countries haven’t fully embraced its potential. For peace to thrive in the Middle East, including with countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and even Iran, we need to focus on business and development that benefits all people in this region. The Middle East needs peace, not war.”
Halabi lamented that the Jordan Gateway project, envisioned as a symbol of economic cooperation, remains unfinished. “What is needed is a peace that connects people, not just agreements between leaders,” he said. While there has been no conflict with Jordan for 30 years, recent tensions with Hamas and Hezbollah have “cast a shadow,” turning peace into a “formal agreement” rather than a warm relationship. “True peace must be among people, not just with kings. If peace exists only at the governmental level, it’s incomplete. People must feel peace, see it, and experience the good in one another’s communities.”
The Jordan Gateway, originally conceived in 1994, was a cross-border initiative aimed at promoting economic cooperation and civil exchange between Israel and Jordan. Planned along the Jordan River near the Sheikh Hussein Bridge, the project envisioned a joint industrial park and free-trade zone spanning both Israeli and Jordanian territories. Despite its ambitious goals, the initiative stalled and never came to fruition. Recently, however, there have been renewed efforts to advance the project, with a stronger focus on enhancing trade and encouraging economic integration.
While the treaty has fostered a critical partnership, questions remain: Is it a “cold peace” or a regional model? In contrast to the recent Abraham Accords and Israel-UAE relations, Israeli-Jordanian peace reflects an older diplomatic approach. Experts agreed that Jordan’s proximity to the West Bank and its population of 2 million Palestinian refugees, many with family ties to Palestinians, strengthen its commitment to the Palestinian cause.
Dr. Assaf David, director of the Israel in the Middle East cluster at the Van Leer Jerusalem Institute, told The Media Line, “Though it is still a formal peace with active diplomatic relations, it has undeniably grown cold, especially with the onset of this latest conflict.” He noted that Israel’s right-wing government, unwilling to cede sovereignty in the West Bank, blocks Palestinian statehood, which “brings Israel into an inevitable strategic clash with Jordan” and makes the Palestinian issue central to Jordan, unlike in Gulf countries.
Israel’s longest border still sees gun smuggling from Jordan into the West Bank, but Dr. David argues that Israel must also address internal policies. He believes that Israel’s right-wing stance, which denies Palestinians their rights, has stalled relations with the Palestinians. Addressing this, he suggests, “would not only enhance Israel’s relations with Jordan and the Palestinians, but also improve Israel’s relations with countries that already have peace treaties, and ultimately sideline extremism and political Islam as an influence.”
The growing influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, its opposition to peace and normalization with Israel, and its support for Hamas and the “axis of resistance” are forcing the Jordanian monarchy to balance its strategic peace with Israel with domestic pressures. The monarchy must address widening public discontent to bridge the gap between the palace and public opinion.
Dr. Winter told The Media Line, “The Jordanian monarchy faces a critical dilemma: whether to continue its traditional line of allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to let off steam or to confront the growing threat they pose to both the king’s foreign policy and the state’s monopoly on the use of force.” This challenge is particularly pressing as ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon strain Jordan-Israel relations on their 30th anniversary, risking one of the region’s most strategic peace agreements.
Additionally, renewing water agreements with Jordan is also in Israel’s interest. Winter suggested that Israel should increase its water quota to Jordan by approximately 50 million cubic meters, in addition to the 100 million currently provided. “Jordan’s stability and welfare are of paramount interest to Israel. Jordan is a strategic security asset for Israel as a peace partner, sharing the longest border with it and serving as a buffer to the east against the region’s radical axis, led by Iran,” he said.
Thirty years after the historic handshake between Rabin and King Hussein, the Israel-Jordan peace treaty remains a unique Middle Eastern partnership. Yet its future may depend on evolving from cold strategic ties to a warmer, more interconnected relationship.
Prof. Elyakim Rubinstein former Supreme Court vice president, attorney general, and veteran diplomat who was instrumental in shaping Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, recalled the optimism that followed the treaty signing. Reflecting on the contrast between that initial hope and today’s reserved tone, Rubinstein said, “We would be happy for warmer relations with Jordan, but the strategic collaboration endures.”
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