Nasrallah Killing a Temporary ‘Big Blow’: America’s Reaction Will Determine Response
Israeli airstrikes killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, dealing a major blow to the Iran-backed group. Hezbollah confirmed his death, marking a turning point in the conflict
By Keren Setton/The Media Line
The Israeli military announced Saturday that it killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese-based Hezbollah terrorist organization, in an airstrike conducted on Friday in Beirut. Nasrallah, who has led Hezbollah since 1992, has been behind the murder of hundreds of Israeli, American, and French citizens in attacks carried out all over the world.
Hezbollah confirmed his death.
The assassination was a dramatic turn of events in a year-long war Israel has been engaged in, mainly with Hamas in the Gaza Strip but increasingly with Hezbollah on the Israeli-Lebanese border in recent weeks.
Hezbollah joined Hamas’ war on Israel just hours after the Gaza-based terrorist organization launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7 of last year. Nasrallah vowed to help the Palestinian war against the Jewish state and immediately began firing rockets and using explosive drones aimed at northern Israel. He repeatedly said his organization would not hold its fire until the war in Gaza was over, emphasizing the two arenas could not be disconnected. Now, Nasrallah is dead before the war has ended.
His death could be a turning point in a conflict that has engulfed the region for almost a year.
Nasrallah’s dominance as leader of Hezbollah has also made him a dominant figure in Lebanese politics. Hezbollah has de facto autonomy over areas it controls in Lebanon, and with members in parliament, it also manages a vast network of social services, infrastructure, health-care facilities, schools, and youth programs, all of which are critical in maintaining its power in the country.
“Nasrallah made his disappearance create a huge vacuum with his own hands. He made sure all his deputies could never overshadow him,” Amatzia Baram, a professor emeritus at the University of Haifa and an expert in Middle Eastern politics, told The Media Line. “He made himself not only a target but also the embodiment of the Hezbollah movement.”
“This is not a final, lethal blow to Hezbollah, but it is a very strong blow, the single strongest blow possible, akin to taking all of Hezbollah’s fighters and jailing them,” Baram added.
While Nasrallah’s departure will leave a temporary vacuum, his position will quickly be filled, and the conflict with Israel will remain unresolved.
“There is still a conflict, and strategically, we are at the same point,” said Prof. Eyal Zisser, Vice Rector and a lecturer at the Middle East History Department and the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University. “This is a lethal blow to Hezbollah and its image.”
Rocket fire from Lebanon into Israel slightly intensified in the first hours after the assassination, and the Israeli air force continued to pound Hezbollah’s stronghold, the Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut on Saturday.
“Hezbollah has no choice and no dilemma but to strike at Israel with whatever they have,” said Baram. “If they don’t, they will lose all their prestige, and the Lebanese will stop fearing them. No response to such a blow will cause them to lose this respect.”
According to Baram, Hezbollah will need a few days to regroup and decide on a response.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who addressed the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York hours before the attack, cut his visit short and made his way back to Israel in light of the developments.
According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), its operations in recent weeks have led to the elimination of at least half of its rocket and missile stockpile. It has also carried out several targeted killings, essentially wiping out almost all of its senior command posts.
“Suddenly removing all of the commanders is a major issue,” said Zisser. “While they can all be replaced, these are people who have been decades in their positions.”
Earlier this month, an incident in which thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded simultaneously across Lebanon was seen as a turning point in Israel’s handling of the Lebanese threat. However, Israel did not take responsibility for the widespread attack.
Before this round of violence between the sides, Israel considered Hezbollah is considered its most threatening enemy. In 2018, a Center for Strategic and International Studies report called it “the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.”
Backed and funded by Iran, the Lebanese terrorist group was believed to have an arsenal of over 150,000 missiles, many of them precision-guided and with a range that could reach much of Israel. Hezbollah’s soldiers are well-trained in ground operations after years of participating in the Syrian civil war, helping President Bashar Assad quell his enemies. Following the October 7 Hamas attacks, residents along Israel’s northern border grow increasingly anxious over the possibility of a similar assault by Hezbollah, which is believed to have similar plans in stow. The Israeli government decided to evacuate approximately 60000 residents since then, vowing to create the conditions to make it safe for them to return.
Now, the region waits to see how developments unfold.
Iran, which has nurtured Hezbollah, now faces a dilemma on whether to react to the major damage its main proxy has suffered. The repeated blows to Hezbollah have jeopardized Tehran’s ability to threaten Israel on its northern border. Experts believe Iran has cultivated Hezbollah to use it in case it needs to retaliate against an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities.
“Iran is faced with a problem. Its project has been battered,” Zisser said.
Iran and Israel have been on a collision course for years. Both engaged in a shadow war against the other. Israel is thought to have carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Iranian targets in the Middle East, as well as cyberattacks on Iranian infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iran has been blamed for attacks on Israeli oil tankers, attempts to abduct and kill Israelis in places like Cyprus and Turkey, and a steady supply of weapons to its proxies. The Israel-Hamas war led to increased tensions between the arch-rivals. These tensions climaxed in April of this year when Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel. Firing more than 300 missiles and suicide drones at the country, it was a departure from its doctrine of indirectly attacking Israel through its many proxies situated on the borders of the Jewish state. Iran’s assault was in retaliation for an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. The attack was largely thwarted by the Israeli military, together with a regional coalition including American and British forces.
“The Iranian leadership reached the conclusion that this was a total failure,” said Baram. “If the Americans will announce that they will help to defend Israel again, this decreases the chances of Iran taking action against Israel.”
“The Iranians are very embarrassed and uncomfortable,” Baram added. “But they are also very scared, and they are starting to think about their self-preservation.”
The operations that led up to the assassination of Nasrallah and the targeted killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil in the summer, allegedly by Israel, have likely caused jitters in Tehran.
On Saturday, both US President Joe Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin distanced themselves from the Nasrallah assassination, saying the US did not receive advance warning of Israel’s plans.
Much of how the region will react to the developments rests on the extent and character of American involvement.
“The Americans are always dragging behind, always after, and in the end, they come to terms and support this,” said Zisser. “In the end, if needed, they will mobilize forces and continue to supply weapons.”
But also, Israel will now have to decide what it wants for its border with Lebanon. In recent weeks, officials and senior military commanders have threatened a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah far from the border. Until now, American and French efforts to reach a diplomatic solution have failed. Hezbollah’s weakened position, whether temporary or not, might change this. In Israel, calls to continue striking at Hezbollah while it is battered have been heard on all sides of the political map. For now, the Israeli army continues to strike in Lebanon.
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